# Research: Hard Data and Institutional Reports — SA Gen-Z Economics ## Summary This report assembles the numeric backbone for South African Gen-Z economics, drawing on official statistics (Stats SA, National Treasury, SARB), institutional reports (Standard Bank, Old Mutual, GCRO, Ichikowitz/AmCham), a peer-reviewed study (SAJEMS), and civil-society data (PMBEJD). It covers youth unemployment time series, repo rate history, household food basket costs, Gini coefficient trends, national minimum wage, education spending, savings behaviour, and youth financial participation. --- ### Stats SA Quarterly Labour Force Survey — Q4 2025 - **Source:** Statistics South Africa - **URL:** https://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P0211/Media%20Release%20QLFS%20Q4%202025.pdf - **Published:** 2026-02-17 - **Validity:** Official statistics - **Summary:** Stats SA's QLFS for Q4 2025 shows the official unemployment rate decreased by 0.5pp to 31.4%, with 17.1 million employed and 7.8 million unemployed. Discouraged job-seekers increased by 233,000 to 3.7 million. - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - 2025-Q4: Official unemployment rate 31.4% (down from 31.9% in Q3 2025) - 2025-Q4: Employed persons 17.1 million (increase of 44,000 from Q3 2025) - 2025-Q4: Discouraged job-seekers 3.7 million (increase of 233,000 from Q3 2025) - 2025-Q4: Labour underutilisation (LU4) 44.5% ### Stats SA Quarterly Labour Force Survey — Q1 2025 (Youth) - **Source:** Statistics South Africa - **URL:** https://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P0211/Media%20Release%20QLFS%20Q1%202025.pdf - **Published:** 2025-05-13 - **Validity:** Official statistics - **Summary:** The Q1 2025 QLFS shows the official unemployment rate rose to 32.9%, with youth (15–34) unemployment climbing to 46.1%. Total unemployed youth reached 4.8 million while employed youth fell to 5.7 million. - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - 2025-Q1: Official unemployment rate 32.9% (up 1.0pp from 31.9% in Q4 2024) - 2025-Q1: Youth (15–34) unemployment rate 46.1% (up from 44.6% in Q4 2024) - 2025-Q1: Total unemployed youth 4.8 million (increase of 151,000 from Q4 2024) - 2025-Q1: Employed youth 5.7 million (decrease of 153,000 from Q4 2024) - 2025-Q1: Expanded unemployment rate 43.1% ### Stats SA Quarterly Labour Force Survey — Q4 2023 (Youth) - **Source:** Statistics South Africa / SAnews - **URL:** https://www.sanews.gov.za/south-africa/stats-sa-records-decrease-number-employed-persons - **Published:** 2024-02-20 - **Validity:** Official statistics - **Summary:** The Q4 2023 QLFS recorded youth unemployment at 44.3%, with 4.7 million unemployed youth and 5.9 million employed youth. The overall unemployment rate was 32.1%. - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - 2023-Q4: Official unemployment rate 32.1% (up 0.2pp from 31.9% in Q3 2023) - 2023-Q4: Youth (15–34) unemployment rate 44.3% (up from 43.4% in Q3 2023) - 2023-Q4: Total unemployed youth 4.7 million (increase of 87,000) - 2023-Q4: Employed youth 5.9 million (decrease of 97,000) - 2024-Q4: Youth unemployment rate 44.6% (eased from 45.5% in Q3 2024) — per IOL reporting of Stats SA release ### SARB Repo Rate History - **Source:** global-rates.com (aggregating SARB MPC decisions) - **URL:** https://www.global-rates.com/en/interest-rates/central-banks/6/south-african-sarb-repo-rate/ - **Published:** 2026-05-28 (latest update) - **Validity:** Official statistics (SARB monetary policy decisions) - **Summary:** The SARB repo rate was cut from 6.25% to 3.50% in July 2020 (COVID-19 emergency easing), then raised to 8.25% by May 2023, and has been gradually cut since September 2024 to 7.00% as of May 2026. - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - 2020-07: Repo rate 3.50% (multi-decade low, COVID-19 easing) - 2023-01: Repo rate 7.25% - 2023-05: Repo rate 8.25% (peak) - 2024-09: Repo rate 8.00% (first cut of easing cycle) - 2024-11: Repo rate 7.75% - 2025-01: Repo rate 7.50% - 2025-05: Repo rate 7.25% - 2025-07: Repo rate 7.00% - 2025-11: Repo rate 6.75% - 2026-05: Repo rate 7.00% (latest) ### National Treasury Budget Review 2026 — Consolidated Spending Plans - **Source:** National Treasury, Republic of South Africa - **URL:** https://www.treasury.gov.za/documents/National%20Budget/2026/review/Chapter%205.pdf - **Published:** 2026-02-25 - **Validity:** Official statistics - **Summary:** The 2026 Budget Review allocates 23.2% of consolidated spending to education over the MTEF, with basic education at R330.6 billion and higher education at R72.1 billion in 2026/27. The social wage constitutes 60.2% of non-interest spending. - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - 2025/26: Consolidated government expenditure R2.58 trillion - 2026/27: Basic education spending R330.6 billion - 2026/27: Higher education and training spending R72.1 billion - 2026/27: Social protection spending R334.6 billion - 2026/27: Social wage 60.2% of non-interest spending - 2026/27: Education 23.2% of consolidated expenditure over MTEF - 2026/27: 13.6 million schoolchildren supported; 26.5 million social grant beneficiaries - 2028/29: Consolidated government expenditure projected R2.89 trillion ### PMBEJD Household Affordability Index — Food Basket Time Series - **Source:** Pietermaritzburg Economic Justice & Dignity Group (PMBEJD) - **URL:** https://pmbejd.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/PMBEJD_Key-Data_January-2026_28012026.pdf - **Published:** 2026-01-28 (January 2026 release; monthly series) - **Validity:** Institutional report - **Summary:** The PMBEJD tracks prices of 44 basic foods from 47 supermarkets and 32 butcheries across Johannesburg, Durban, Cape Town, Pietermaritzburg, Mtubatuba, and Springbok. The household food basket cost has risen from R5,238 in December 2023 to R5,452 in April 2026, with year-on-year increases generally moderate. - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - 2023-12: Average household food basket R5,238.20 - 2023-10: Average household food basket R5,297.58 - 2024-10: Average household food basket R5,348.65 (+1.0% YoY) - 2024-12: Average household food basket R5,383.38 (+2.8% YoY) - 2025-01: Average household food basket R5,433.70 - 2025-12: Average household food basket R5,333.45 - 2026-01: Average household food basket R5,401.44 (-0.6% YoY) - 2026-03: Average household food basket R5,328.53 - 2026-04: Average household food basket R5,452.09 (+0.6% YoY, +2.3% MoM) ### World Bank Gini Index — South Africa Time Series - **Source:** World Bank, Poverty and Inequality Platform (via indexmundi.com) - **URL:** https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/south-africa/indicator/SI.POV.GINI - **Published:** 2026-02-04 (statbase analysis date; World Bank data) - **Validity:** Official statistics - **Summary:** South Africa's Gini index was 63.0 in 2014, the most recent World Bank estimate available on the standard series, making it one of the most unequal countries globally. The index peaked at 64.8 in 2005 and hit a low of 57.8 in 2000. - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - 1993: Gini index 59.30 - 2000: Gini index 57.80 (lowest recorded) - 2005: Gini index 64.80 (highest recorded) - 2008: Gini index 63.00 - 2010: Gini index 63.40 - 2014: Gini index 63.00 (most recent on World Bank income series) - 2022: Gini index 54.1 (FRED/St. Louis Fed, likely consumption-based measure — different methodology) ### National Minimum Wage — South Africa - **Source:** South African Government / Department of Employment and Labour - **URL:** https://www.gov.za/news/media-statements/minister-nomakhosazana-meth-increases-statutory-national-minimum-wage-r3023 - **Published:** 2026-02-03 - **Validity:** Official statistics - **Summary:** The national minimum wage was raised to R30.23 per hour effective March 2026, up from R28.79 in 2025 and R27.58 in 2024. The 2026 increase represents approximately 5% year-on-year. - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - 2024-03-01: National minimum wage R27.58/hour (8.5% increase) - 2025-03-01: National minimum wage R28.79/hour - 2026-03-01: National minimum wage R30.23/hour (~5% increase) ### Old Mutual Savings & Investment Monitor 2026 (Gen Z Preview) - **Source:** Old Mutual / Business Day - **URL:** https://www.businessday.co.za/economy/2026-07-13-why-young-south-africans-are-saving-less-despite-financial-goals/ - **Published:** 2026-07-13 - **Validity:** Institutional report - **Summary:** Old Mutual's Savings & Investment Monitor preview finds that only 46% of working Gen Z (18–29) save regularly, down 11% from 2025, as rising living costs and family responsibilities erode savings capacity. The national saving rate ticked up to 14.9% of GDP in Q1 2026 but is expected to dip. - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - 2026: 91% of working Gen Z have savings goals - 2026: 46% of Gen Z save regularly (down 11% from 2025) - 2026: 56% dipped into savings for daily expenses (up 10% from 2025) - 2026: 36% of Gen Z report financial stress (up from 29% in 2025) - 2026: 22% took out loans for everyday expenses - 2026: 43% of Gen Z are "sandwich generation" (supporting both younger and older family) - 2026: 51% earning more than a year ago (down from 55% in 2025) - 2026-Q1: National saving rate 14.9% of GDP (up from 13.3% in Q4 2025) - 2025-02: SARS approved R79.3 billion for two-pot savings withdrawal; 5.6 million tax directives - 2023/24: Only ~6% of South Africans on track to retire comfortably (10X Investments) ### Standard Bank Youth Barometer 2026 - **Source:** Standard Bank (with Youth Dynamix and Liberty) - **URL:** https://www.standardbank.co.za/static_file/South%20Africa/News%20and%20Media/Latest%20News/Press%20Releases/2026/PDF/Standard_Bank_2026_Youth_Barometer_Report.pdf - **Published:** 2026-07-14 - **Validity:** Institutional report - **Summary:** The second edition of Standard Bank's Youth Barometer draws on spending, saving, and borrowing data from Standard Bank and Liberty customers under 35. It finds youth are adapting financially rather than disengaging — buying homes, using credit strategically, and shifting toward value-driven vehicle purchases, particularly Chinese brands. - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - 2023–2026: Under-35s consistently ~40% of all Standard Bank home loan applications received; 40.1% of approved applications - 2026: Average granted home loan for under-35s ~R1.2 million (13% increase from 2023) - 2021: Chinese-brand share of under-35 vehicle originations 3.1% - 2025: Chinese-brand share of under-35 vehicle originations 11.0% - 2026-04: Chinese brands 16.7% of all Standard Bank VAF originations (third-largest manufacturer country) - 2021–2025: Entry-level vehicle segment growth 339% - 2021–2026: Used vehicles 70.5% of under-35 originations (vs 64.1% for 35+); average financed used value ~R287,000, new ~R365,000 - 2025: Under-35 virtual card adoption ~30% (vs 13% for over-60s) - 2025: Under-35 credit card utilisation 70–73% (vs 47% for over-60s) - 2025: Under-35s represent 16% of credit card customers but 29% of digital wallet usage - 2025: 67.9% of youth financing Chinese-brand cars buy new vehicles (vs 29.5% for other brands) ### GCRO: Highest Educational Attainment and Social Mobility Over Time - **Source:** Gauteng City-Region Observatory (GCRO) - **URL:** https://cdn.gcro.ac.za/outputs/vignettes/detail/highest-educational-attainment-and-social-mobility-over-time/ - **Published:** 2026-07-31 - **Validity:** Institutional report - **Summary:** Using seven iterations of the GCRO Quality of Life survey (N=118,885), this vignette analyses educational attainment across birth cohorts in Gauteng. It finds that tertiary attainment increased from 25% (born before 1950) to 33% (born after 1991), with black Africans showing a 10pp increase in tertiary qualifications. - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - Pre-1950 cohort: 25% of respondents had tertiary education - Post-1991 cohort: 33% of respondents had tertiary education - Pre-1950 cohort: Black African tertiary attainment 23% - Post-1991 cohort: Black African tertiary attainment 33% (10pp increase) - Post-1991 cohort: Female tertiary attainment 34% (up from 24% for pre-1950 cohort) - Gen Z (born 1997–2006): Mean years of schooling — females 12 years, males 11.8 years - Post-1991: 7pp drop in proportion of black Africans with none/only primary education - Post-1991: Born in Gauteng average 11.7 years schooling vs 10.5 years for those born elsewhere ### Ichikowitz/AmCham African Youth Survey — South Africa Country Report 2024 - **Source:** Ichikowitz Family Foundation / AmCham - **URL:** https://amcham.co.za/sites/default/files/content-files/Thought%20Leadership/AYS%20SA%20country%20report%2024%20v8.pdf - **Published:** 2024-09 - **Validity:** Institutional report - **Summary:** A survey of 1,046 South African youth aged 18–24 (part of a 16-country African Youth Survey of 5,700 respondents) finds sentiment about the country's direction has plummeted, with 74% saying SA is going the wrong way (up from 50% in 2020). Corruption and unemployment are the top concerns. - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - 2020: 50% of SA youth said country going in wrong direction - 2022: 63% said wrong direction - 2024: 74% said wrong direction (+24% since 2020) - 2020: 34% of SA youth felt optimistic/excited about the future - 2024: 16% felt optimistic/excited (down from 34% in 2020) - 2022: 61% said national economy heading wrong direction - 2024: 71% said economy heading wrong direction - 2024: 85% 'very concerned' about corruption (up from 64% in 2022) - 2024: 82% 'very concerned' about lack of employment opportunities - 2024: 81% 'very concerned' about gender-based violence (up from 72% in 2022) - 2024: 76% dissatisfied with government's anti-corruption efforts - 2024: 31% would support non-democratic government in some circumstances (up from 22% in 2022) - 2024: 63% registered to vote; 69% agree their voice matters to leadership (up from 54% in 2022) - 2024: 88% say illegal immigrants take jobs from locals; 85% say they should be forcefully removed - 2024: 51% feel everyone is equal before the law; 33% satisfied with police/security services ### SAJEMS: Predicting the Career Success of Generation Z Employees - **Source:** South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences (SAJEMS), Vol 27, No 1 - **URL:** https://scielo.org.za/scielo.php?pid=S2222-34362024000100045&script=sci_arttext - **Published:** 2024-11 - **Validity:** Peer-reviewed study - **Summary:** A quantitative study of 320 Gen Z SETA bursary holders (W&RSETA and CHIETA) finds no significant relationship between socioeconomic status and career success (adaptability, employability) or proactive career behaviours (engagement, mentorship). Career engagement and mentorship were significantly related to career adaptability and employability, but socioeconomic status did not mediate these relationships. - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - 2024: Study sample N=320 Gen Z SETA bursary holders - 2024: Most participants were at a socioeconomic disadvantage during formation years - 2024: No significant relationship found between socioeconomic status and career adaptability (p=0.097) - 2024: No significant relationship found between socioeconomic status and career engagement (p=0.426) - 2024: Career engagement significantly predicted career adaptability (β=0.41, p<0.001) - 2024: Career adaptability scale reliability α=0.94; employability scale reliability α=0.84 - 2024: Conclusion — Gen Z career development from marginalised backgrounds requires comprehensive strategy tackling educational, social and institutional obstacles ### SARB Quarterly Bulletin — Household Saving Rate - **Source:** South African Reserve Bank (via Business Day reporting) - **URL:** https://www.businessday.co.za/economy/2026-07-13-why-young-south-africans-are-saving-less-despite-financial-goals/ - **Published:** 2026-07-13 - **Validity:** Official statistics - **Summary:** The SARB's latest quarterly bulletin shows the national saving rate rose to 14.9% of GDP in Q1 2026 from 13.3% in Q4 2025, though analysts expect it to dip in Q2 2026 as rising living costs take their toll. - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - 2025-Q4: National saving rate 13.3% of GDP - 2026-Q1: National saving rate 14.9% of GDP --- ## Sources - **Kept:** Stats SA QLFS Q4 2025 Media Release (https://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P0211/Media%20Release%20QLFS%20Q4%202025.pdf) — official unemployment rate and labour force data, highest validity - **Kept:** Stats SA QLFS Q1 2025 Media Release (https://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P0211/Media%20Release%20QLFS%20Q1%202025.pdf) — youth unemployment rate 46.1%, the most recent Stats SA youth-specific figure from media release - **Kept:** SAnews.gov.za Q4 2023 QLFS reporting (https://www.sanews.gov.za/south-africa/stats-sa-records-decrease-number-employed-persons) — youth unemployment 44.3% with full breakdown - **Kept:** global-rates.com SARB repo rate (https://www.global-rates.com/en/interest-rates/central-banks/6/south-african-sarb-repo-rate/) — complete repo rate time series 2023–2026 - **Kept:** National Treasury Budget Review 2026 Chapter 5 (https://www.treasury.gov.za/documents/National%20Budget/2026/review/Chapter%205.pdf) — education and social wage spending figures - **Kept:** PMBEJD Household Affordability Index (https://pmbejd.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/PMBEJD_Key-Data_January-2026_28012026.pdf) — monthly food basket cost time series, civil-society data with consistent methodology - **Kept:** indexmundi.com World Bank Gini data (https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/south-africa/indicator/SI.POV.GINI) — Gini index time series 1993–2014 with full year-by-year values - **Kept:** SA Government NMW announcement (https://www.gov.za/news/media-statements/minister-nomakhosazana-meth-increases-statutory-national-minimum-wage-r3023) — official minimum wage figures 2024–2026 - **Kept:** Old Mutual / Business Day (https://www.businessday.co.za/economy/2026-07-13-why-young-south-africans-are-saving-less-despite-financial-goals/) — Gen Z savings behaviour with year-over-year comparisons - **Kept:** Standard Bank Youth Barometer 2026 PDF (https://www.standardbank.co.za/static_file/South%20Africa/News%20and%20Media/Latest%20News/Press%20Releases/2026/PDF/Standard_Bank_2026_Youth_Barometer_Report.pdf) — comprehensive youth financial behaviour data from bank customer data - **Kept:** GCRO Vignette 45 (https://cdn.gcro.ac.za/outputs/vignettes/detail/highest-educational-attainment-and-social-mobility-over-time/) — educational attainment by birth cohort, N=118,885 - **Kept:** Ichikowitz/AmCham AYS SA Country Report 2024 (https://amcham.co.za/sites/default/files/content-files/Thought%20Leadership/AYS%20SA%20country%20report%2024%20v8.pdf) — youth sentiment survey with 2020/2022/2024 time series - **Kept:** SAJEMS via SciELO (https://scielo.org.za/scielo.php?pid=S2222-34362024000100045&script=sci_arttext) — peer-reviewed Gen Z career success study - **Kept:** IOL Business Report (https://iol.co.za/business-report/economy/2025-02-19-youth-unemployment-remains-a-headache-for-government-as-job-market-struggle-continues/) — corroborated Q4 2024 youth unemployment at 44.6% and Q3 2024 at 45.5% - **Dropped:** statbase.org Gini analysis — secondary aggregation of World Bank data, used indexmundi primary source instead - **Dropped:** FRED St. Louis Fed Gini series — returned 404; 2022 value of 54.1 noted as likely different methodology (consumption vs income-based) - **Dropped:** CEIC Data and countryeconomy.com — paywalled or limited data, redundant with global-rates.com for repo rate ## Gaps - **Stats SA QLFS Q2 2026 PDF** could not be fetched (404 error). The Q2 2026 media release may contain updated youth unemployment figures, but was not available at time of research. The embargo date was 11 August 2026. - **Youth unemployment 15–24 age bracket** (narrower than 15–34) was not systematically extracted across quarters. The Stats SA full QLFS PDFs contain this breakdown but could not be fetched due to PDF parsing limitations. - **Gini coefficient post-2014** is not available on the World Bank's standard income-based series. The 2022 FRED value of 54.1 appears to use a different methodology (possibly consumption-based) and is not directly comparable to the 63.0 (2014) income-based figure. - **SARB Quarterly Bulletin** household savings rate was sourced via Business Day reporting rather than the primary SARB PDF. The exact SARB bulletin edition was not directly fetched. - **Standard Bank Youth Barometer 2025 (first edition)** was not accessed for year-over-year comparison with the 2026 edition. - **Full Old Mutual Savings & Investment Monitor 2026** (broader population results) was noted as forthcoming at time of research; only the Gen Z preview was available.