# Research: South African Youth Unemployment Over Time + Generational Divide in Economic Sentiment / Outlook ## Summary South African youth unemployment (ages 15-34, official definition) has risen from 36.8% in 2014 to 45.8% in Q1 2026, with the 15-24 age cohort at 60.9%. NEET rates have climbed from ~30% in 2013 to 37.6% in Q1 2026 for 15-24-year-olds. Surveys reveal a stark generational divide: Afrobarometer (2025) found 84% of youth see the country going in the "wrong direction" and 96% say government is failing on job creation, while the Indlulamithi Survey (2026) paradoxically found under-30s more hopeful about national renewal than older cohorts — though the African Youth Survey (2026) places South African youth among the most pessimistic on the continent, with only 23% believing the country is on the right track. --- ### Stats SA QLFS Q1:2026 — Official Labour Market Presentation - **Source:** Statistics South Africa - **URL:** - **Published:** 2026 (Q1 2026 release) - **Validity:** Official statistics - **Summary:** The official Stats SA QLFS Q1 2026 presentation provides the most recent authoritative data on South Africa's labour market, including detailed youth unemployment figures, NEET rates, and a 10-year time series. It shows youth unemployment persistently above 40% and NEET rates climbing for the 15-24 age group. - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - Q1:2026: Youth (15-34) official unemployment rate: 45.8%, with 4.7 million unemployed out of 21.0 million working-age youth - Q1:2026: Youth aged 15-24 unemployment rate: 60.9%; aged 25-34: 40.6% - Q1:2026: NEET rate for 15-24-year-olds: 37.6% (3.9 million out of 10.3 million) - Q1:2026: NEET rate for 15-34-year-olds: 45.6% - Q1:2016→Q1:2026: Number of unemployed youth increased from 3.7 million to 4.7 million; long-term unemployment proportion rose from 63.3% to 75.5% - Q1:2026: Graduate unemployment rate: 12.2% (up from 10.3% in Q4:2025) - Q1:2026: National official unemployment rate: 32.7%; combined rate including potential labour force (LU3): 43.7% - Q1:2026: Female NEET rate (15-24): 39.2%, up 1.7 percentage points from Q1:2025 ### Stats SA QLFS Q4:2025 — Media Release - **Source:** Statistics South Africa - **URL:** - **Published:** 2026-02-17 - **Validity:** Official statistics - **Summary:** The Q4 2025 QLFS media release reported a slight decline in the national unemployment rate to 31.4%, with 44,000 jobs added. Youth unemployment remained structurally entrenched despite the overall improvement. - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - Q4:2025: Official national unemployment rate: 31.4% (down from 31.9% in Q3:2025) - Q4:2025: Employment increased by 44,000 to 17.1 million; unemployed decreased by 172,000 to 7.8 million ### Afrobarometer Dispatch No. 1068 — South African Youth See Government as Failing on Job Creation - **Source:** Afrobarometer - **URL:** - **Published:** 2025-10-31 - **Validity:** Institutional report - **Summary:** Afrobarometer's Round 10 survey (2025) of South African youth (18-35) found deep pessimism: 84% see the country headed in the "wrong direction," 96% say government is failing to create jobs, and 30% have considered emigrating. Nearly half prefer public-sector employment, and job creation is their top priority for additional government spending. - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - 2025: 84% of youth (18-35) believe South Africa is headed in the "wrong direction" - 2025: 47% of youth say they are not employed and looking for work (vs. 38% of 36-55-year-olds) - 2025: 96% of youth say government is failing to create jobs; 91% say failing on corruption - 2025: 63% of youth cite unemployment as the most important problem for government to address - 2025: 45% of youth would prefer to work in government/public sector; only 23% want to start their own business - 2025: 30% of youth have considered moving abroad; better job opportunities top the reasons - 2014→2024: Unemployment rate among 15-34-year-olds increased from 36.8% to 45.5% (citing Stats SA) - 2024: 43.2% of 15-34-year-olds were NEET, up 5 percentage points from a decade earlier - 2009→2024: Social grant dependence among 15-24-year-olds grew from 4.8% to 35.9% - Q1:2025: 2 million of the country's 3.5 million discouraged work-seekers were youth aged 15-34 ### Afrobarometer Dispatch No. 681 — South African Youth Say Government Is Failing to Address Their Top Priority: Jobs - **Source:** Afrobarometer - **URL:** - **Published:** 2023-08-08 - **Validity:** Institutional report - **Summary:** Afrobarometer's 2023 survey found unemployment to be the overwhelming top priority for South African youth, with only about 1 in 10 giving government a passing grade on job creation, crime, electricity, or corruption. Youth are more educated than older generations but also more likely to be unemployed. - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - 2023: 54% of youth (18-35) cite unemployment as one of their top three priorities for government - 2023: 47% of youth say they are looking for a job (vs. 35% of middle-aged, 10% of older citizens) - 2023: Only 11% of youth give government a passing grade on job creation; 10% on corruption - 2023: 45% of youth describe their personal living conditions as "fairly bad" or "very bad" - Q1:2023: Unemployment among 15-34-year-olds: 46.5% (vs. national average of 32.9%) - 2020: South Africa ranked 131st of 181 countries on the Global Youth Development Index ### Stats SA — Marginalised Groups Series VII: The Social Profile of the Youth, 2014-2024 - **Source:** Statistics South Africa (referenced via SABC News analysis) - **URL:** - **Published:** 2025-02 (report); 2026-06-16 (SABC analysis citing it) - **Validity:** Official statistics - **Summary:** Stats SA's Social Profile of the Youth report (released February 2025) provides a decade-long overview of youth marginalisation from 2014 to 2024, documenting rising unemployment, growing social grant dependence, and persistent skills mismatches. It confirms that youth unemployment has worsened over the decade despite policy interventions. - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - 2014→2024: Youth unemployment rate (15-34, official) climbed from 36.8% to 45.5% - 2024: Approximately 21 million young people account for 33.1% of the country's population (Mid-year Population Estimates) - Q1:2016→Q1:2026: Graduate unemployment doubled from 5.6% to 12.2% - Q1:2016→Q1:2026: Total unemployed persons increased from 5.7 million to 8.1 million; employed increased only from 15.6 million to 16.8 million ### SALDRU/UCT — Youth Unemployment and the Search for Meaningful Pathways to Employment - **Source:** Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town - **URL:** - **Published:** 2025-06-27 - **Validity:** Institutional report - **Summary:** SALDRU's annual NEET analysis, based on QLFS Q1 data from 2015-2025, shows the NEET rate for 15-24-year-olds rising from 29% to 34% over the decade. Long-term searching unemployment among NEET youth increased from 40% to over 50%, with 67% of NEET youth indicating they want to work and are available to work. - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - Q1:2025: 34% of youth aged 15-24 are NEET, representing over 3.5 million youth - 2015→2025: NEET rate (15-24) increased from 29% to 34% - 2015→2025: Long-term searching unemployed (1+ year) among NEET youth rose from 40% to over 50% - Q1:2025: Over 67% of NEET youth (2,366,610) wanted to work and were available to work - Q1:2025: 24.6% of employed youth worked in the informal sector (excluding private households) ### SALDRU/UCT — Profile of Young NEETs in South Africa (2022 Annual Update) - **Source:** Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town - **URL:** - **Published:** 2022-06-30 (analysis of Q1 2022 QLFS data) - **Validity:** Institutional report - **Summary:** This detailed profile of NEET youth aged 15-24, using QLFS data from 2013-2022, found that NEETs are predominantly female, black, slightly older (20-24), urban, and in income poverty. The majority are unemployed (not inactive), with 80.6% being new labour market entrants who have never worked before. - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - Q1:2022: NEET rate for 15-24-year-olds: 34.3% (3.51 million out of 10.23 million) - Q1:2013: NEET rate for 15-24-year-olds: 30.2% (3.07 million) - Q1:2022: Official unemployment rate among 15-24-year-olds: 63.9% - Q1:2022: 49.7% of searching-unemployed NEET youth were long-term unemployed (1+ year) - Q1:2022: 80.6% of searching-unemployed NEETs were new entrants who had never worked before - 2018: 58.4% of NEET youth (15-24) lived in income poverty (household income - **Published:** 2026-09-13 - **Validity:** Major media - **Summary:** The Indlulamithi Perception Survey 2026 revealed a striking generational divide: respondents under 30 are more hopeful that South Africa is on a path to renewal than their older counterparts. However, the 2026 Barometer found 72% of current indicators point towards continued economic stagnation, describing a country that functions but struggles to create a convincing sense of progress. - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - 2026: Under-30 respondents more optimistic about SA being on a path to renewal than older cohorts - 2026: 72% of Barometer indicators point towards continued economic stagnation - 2026: Many respondents fear South Africa could slide into deeper institutional failure, including criminal syndicates capturing state institutions ### African Youth Survey 2026 — Ichikowitz Family Foundation - **Source:** Ichikowitz Family Foundation / PSB Insights - **URL:** - **Published:** 2026-07-29 - **Validity:** Institutional report - **Summary:** The African Youth Survey 2026, covering 4,901 youth aged 18-24 across 16 African countries, found South African youth among the most pessimistic on the continent. Only 23% believe the country is heading in the right direction and 25% feel excited about the future, while 69% believe Africa is moving in the wrong direction — placing South Africa in the bottom three for optimism. This contrasts sharply with the continental average, where 47% say their country is moving in the right direction (up from 30% in 2024). - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - 2026: Only 23% of South African youth believe the country is heading in the right direction - 2026: Only 25% of South African youth feel excited about the future - 2026: 69% of South African respondents believe Africa is moving in the wrong direction (among the continent's most pessimistic) - 2026: South Africa ranked in the bottom three in Africa for youth optimism - 2026: Continental average — 47% say their country is moving in the right direction (up from 30% in 2024); 45% say their economy is heading in the right direction (up from 26% in 2024) - 2026: 73% of African youth prefer democracy; 56% say Western-style democracy not suited for Africa - 2026: Survey interviewed 4,901 youth aged 18-24 across 16 countries in March 2026 ### Wits University — South Africa's Youth Are a Generation Lost Under Democracy - **Source:** University of the Witwatersrand (David Everatt, Professor of Urban Governance) - **URL:** - **Published:** 2024-04-26 - **Validity:** Opinion/essay (based on academic research) - **Summary:** David Everatt's research traces youth marginalisation from 1992 to 2018 using a multi-dimensional marginalisation index. Comparing the 1992 and 2018 surveys, the proportion of youth who are "fine" dropped from 25% to 16%, while the "lost" category remained at 5%. The study finds that youth today are only marginally better off than when apartheid ended, with a stark racial divide in outcomes. - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - Late 2023: Expanded unemployment rate for 15-24-year-olds: 60.7%; for 25-34: 39.8% - 1992→2018: Youth classified as "fine" dropped from 25% to 16%; "lost" remained at 5% - 2018: Only 14.1% of African youth classified as "fine" vs. 33.3% of white youth and 34.8% of Indian youth - 2018: To be young, black, and male in Gauteng carried the highest likelihood of marginalisation; only 0.3% of white youth showed signs of high marginalisation - 2024: Youth (under 34) make up 34.3% of the population ### El País English — Gen Z's Struggle in South Africa, the Most Unequal Country in the World - **Source:** El País (English edition) - **URL:** - **Published:** 2026-01-03 - **Validity:** Major media - **Summary:** This feature report from Johannesburg profiles Gen Z students at Wits University navigating the extremes of post-apartheid South Africa — between Alexandra township and Sandton's wealth. It contextualises South Africa's status as the world's most unequal country (by Gini coefficient) and the demographic pressures of a young population, with 60% under 34 and youth unemployment at 46%. - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - Q1:2025: Unemployment rate among 15-34-year-olds: 46% (nine points higher than a decade ago) - 2026: 60% of South Africa's population is under 34 - 2026: Richest 10% of the population owns 80% of household wealth (World Bank data) - 2021-2022: Approximately 2,400 women murdered (estimated highest rate in the world, per SA Medical Research Council) - 2050 (projected): A third of the world's youth will be African (UN projections) ### Youth Capital — 2025 Q4 QLFS: Youth Unemployment Exposed - **Source:** Youth Capital (advocacy/research organisation) - **URL:** - **Published:** 2026-02-18 - **Validity:** Specialist trade media - **Summary:** Youth Capital's analysis of the Q4 2025 QLFS highlights that while the official youth unemployment rate (15-34) marginally declined from 44.6% to 43.8%, this does not represent recovery. A decade ago youth unemployment stood at 34.9%. For every 5 unemployed young people, 4 have been without work for more than a year, indicating entrenched long-term exclusion. - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - Q4:2024→Q4:2025: Youth unemployment (15-34) declined marginally from 44.6% to 43.8% - Q4:2025: Youth unemployment rate for 15-24-year-olds: 57% (highest of any age group) - ~2015: Youth unemployment stood at 34.9% a decade prior - Q4:2025: For every 5 unemployed young people, 4 have been without work for more than a year ### SABC News Analysis — Statistics Reveal Bleak Economic Future for Youth - **Source:** SABC News (Velemseni Mthiyane, Business and Economics Specialist Researcher) - **URL:** - **Published:** 2026-06-16 - **Validity:** Major media - **Summary:** This comprehensive analysis piece draws on QLFS Q1 2026 data, the Stats SA Social Profile of Youth 2014-2024 report, and the General Household Survey 2025 to paint a detailed picture of youth labour market exclusion. It documents the decade-long deterioration in youth employment outcomes, rising NEET rates, growing gender disparities, and the doubling of graduate unemployment. - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - Q1:2026: 45.8% of youth (15-34) unemployed — 4.7 million without jobs; only 5.6 million employed out of 21 million working-age youth - Q1:2026: NEET rate 15-24: 37.6% (3.9 million); NEET rate 15-34: 45.6% — both up 0.5pp from Q1:2025 - Q1:2016→Q1:2026: Number of unemployed youth increased from 3.7 million to 4.7 million; long-term unemployment proportion from 63.3% to 75.5% - Q1:2016→Q1:2026: Graduate unemployment doubled from 5.6% to 12.2% - Q1:2026: Absorption rate for 15-24 age group: 10.1% (lowest of any age group); participation rate for 25-34: 72.0% with absorption rate of 42.8% - Q1:2026: Female NEET rate (15-24): 39.2% (up 1.7pp from Q1:2025); male NEET: 36.0% (down 0.7pp) - 2025 (GHS): Total higher education enrolment increased 59.1% between 2002 and 2025 to 976,147; black African students comprised 73.9% of all students in 2025 --- ## Sources - **Kept:** - Stats SA QLFS Q1:2026 Presentation (statssa.gov.za) — primary official statistics, most recent quarter, full time series - Stats SA QLFS Q4:2025 Media Release (statssa.gov.za) — official Q4 2025 headline numbers - Afrobarometer AD1068 (afrobarometer.org) — key institutional survey on youth sentiment, October 2025 - Afrobarometer AD681 (afrobarometer.org) — earlier 2023 survey for trend comparison - SABC News analysis (sabcnews.com) — comprehensive analysis citing Stats SA Social Profile of Youth report and GHS 2025 - SALDRU/UCT Youth Unemployment article (saldru.uct.ac.za) — authoritative NEET time series 2015-2025 - SALDRU/UCT NEET Profile (saldru.uct.ac.za) — detailed 2013-2022 NEET analysis with demographic breakdowns - SABC/Indlulamithi Survey (sabcnews.com) — generational divide in outlook, September 2026 - African Youth Survey 2026 / EWN (ewn.co.za) — continental comparison showing SA youth pessimism - IOL African Youth Survey coverage (iol.co.za) — additional AYS 2026 detail on SA vs continent - Wits/Everatt study (wits.ac.za) — 30-year marginalisation index, academic basis - El País English (english.elpais.com) — international media context on Gen Z and inequality - Youth Capital (youthcapital.co.za) — specialist analysis of Q4 2025 youth unemployment data - **Dropped:** - FRED St. Louis Fed (fred.stlouisfed.org) — only had 15-24 unemployment rate, secondary source for Stats SA data already captured directly - Trading Economics NEET data (tradingeconomics.com) — World Bank derivative, less authoritative than direct Stats SA/SALDRU sources - "SA Data Hub" (sadatahub.tech) — third-party aggregator of Stats SA data, not a primary source - YouTube African Youth Survey video — audiovisual content, key findings already captured from text reporting ## Gaps - **Stats SA "Youth in the Labour Market: A Decade in Review" article** (statssa.gov.za/?p=18398) could not be fetched directly due to a 404/anti-bot wall; key data points from it were captured via the SABC analysis article that extensively cites it. - **Expanded (unofficial) youth unemployment time series**: Stats SA stopped reporting the "expanded unemployment rate" from Q3 2025 onward, replacing it with the combined rate of unemployment and potential labour force (LU3). Earlier expanded-definition figures (e.g., 60.7% for 15-24 in late 2023 cited by Everatt) are not directly comparable to the new LU3 measure. - **Indlulamithi Barometer full data**: Only the SABC summary was available; the full 2026 Barometer report with all 215 indicators was not fetched. The specific percentage of under-30s who are optimistic (vs. older cohorts) was not reported in the available source. - **African Youth Survey 2026 full white paper**: The PDF was found but not fetched in full; the EWN and IOL articles provided the key South Africa-specific findings. Detailed South Africa-only cross-tabulations (e.g., unemployment sentiment by province) are not available from the media coverage.