# Research: Intergenerational affordability decline in South Africa — homes, cars, wages vs inflation for Gen Z vs Millennials vs Boomers ## Summary South African Gen Z faces a fundamentally harsher economic landscape than Millennials did two decades ago: entry-level salaries have risen only 8–44% nominally since 2008 while living costs have surged 50–260%, eroding ~21% of purchasing power. First-time home buyers now need R52,830/month to qualify for a mortgage vs R231/month (in real terms ~R7,931) in 1966, and the median first-time buyer age has shifted from early-to-mid 20s to 38–40. Vehicle affordability has deteriorated as instalments consume 16.1% of income vs 14.3% a decade ago, and youth unemployment has risen from 36.9% (2015) to 43.8% (Q4 2025). ## Findings ### Financial independence slips away for 20-somethings as wages trail inflation by nearly two decades - **Source:** News24 / City Press - **URL:** https://www.news24.com/citypress/business/financial-independence-slips-away-for-20-somethings-as-wages-trail-inflation-by-nearly-two-decades-20251014-0916 - **Published:** 2025-10-14 - **Validity:** Major media - **Summary:** A report by The TEFL Academy comparing the cost of living for Millennial graduates entering the job market in 2005 with Gen Z graduates in 2025 finds that salaries grew just 8–44% since 2008, far below inflation and GDP growth. Entry-level salaries have lost around 21% of purchasing power, with rent now consuming 48–64% of a young professional's income vs ~20% in 2005. - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - 2008: Graduate roles paid R6,250–R8,333/month; top 20% earned ~R14,583/month - 2025: Internships average R6,000–R9,000/month — a nominal increase of just 8–44% over ~17 years - 2005: Rent was ~R1,500/month, consuming ~20% of graduate income - 2024: Average rent reached R8,598/month (PayProp), consuming 48–64% of Gen Z income - 2005: Monthly groceries ~R1,500; 2025: household food basket ~R5,443 (263% increase) - 2005: NSFAS average loan R30,000; 2025: R90,000 (200% increase / tripled) - 2005: Petrol R5.02/litre; 2025: R21.14/litre (300%+ increase) - 2005: Diesel R5.14/litre; 2025: R19.47/litre (~280% increase) ### The cost of being young in South Africa: Gen Z financial hurdles - **Source:** BizCommunity - **URL:** https://www.bizcommunity.com/article/the-cost-of-being-young-in-south-africa-gen-z-financial-hurdles-060955a - **Published:** 2025-10-17 - **Validity:** Specialist trade media - **Summary:** BizCommunity summarizes The TEFL Academy's "The Cost of Being Young in 2005 vs 2025 in South Africa" report, which draws on Stats SA, National Treasury, the Quarterly Labour Force Survey, and the Household Affordability Index. The study uses inflation-adjusted benchmarks across housing, transport, education, groceries, and debt. It finds youth unemployment at 46% (per QLFS) and salaries losing ~21% in real terms. - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - 2008: More than half of graduate vacancies offered R75,000–R100,000/year (R6,250–R8,333/month); top 20% paid above R175,000/year (R14,583/month) — per Mail & Guardian 2008 - 2025: Indeed reported average intern salary ~R5,847/month (September 2025); Glassdoor ~R9,000/month (October 2025) - 2005: Average monthly rent ~R1,500 (SAPOA / early PayProp estimates), ~20% of graduate income - 2024: Average rent R8,598/month (PayProp Rental Index Annual Market Report 2024 Edition), 48–64% of Gen Z income - 2005: Average car price R65,000; 2025: R178,800 (175% increase, including insurance) - 2005: Public transport fare R561/month; 2025: R850/month (52% increase) - 2005: Household food basket ~R1,500; 2025: R5,443 (263% increase) ### Generational home affordability: why the 20-year-old today is locked out - **Source:** Independent on Saturday - **URL:** https://independentonsaturday.co.za/personal-finance/financial-planning/2026-01-31-generational-home-affordability-why-the-20-year-old-today-is-locked-out/ - **Published:** 2026-01-31 - **Validity:** Major media - **Summary:** Using Lightstone data and bond originator figures, this article compares first-time home buying across generations. In 1966 a typical home cost R9,500 and a 20-year-old needed ~R231/month to qualify; today a R1.5 million home requires ~R52,830/month. Despite price-to-income ratios appearing slightly improved (6.9 vs 7.9 years), the absolute income threshold for mortgage qualification has risen dramatically, driven by interest rates. - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - 1966: Typical home cost R9,500; required income ~R2,772/year (~R231/month) at 7.5% prime over 20 years - 1966 (inflation-adjusted to today): Equivalent income ~R285,516/year; equivalent monthly repayment ~R7,931 - 2024: Young adults aged 20–35 accounted for ~30% of all property transactions (Lightstone); 17% paid R1m–R1.5m - 2025–2026: At R1.5m home price, 10.25% prime, 20-year bond — required income ~R633,960/year (~R52,830/month); monthly repayment ~R17,610 - 2024–2025: Median first-time buyer age ~38–40 years vs 23–25 in the 1960s - 2026-01: BetterBond average first-time buyer price just above R1.3 million; ooba average price R1.44 million - 2025-Q4: BetterBond average FTB deposit R150,000 (15% YoY decline, but still 30% higher than early 2021) - 2026-01: Prime lending rate 10.25% after cumulative 150bps cut since Q3 2024; home loan applications up 8.9% YoY ### Millennials thought they had it tough, but Gen Z is struggling even more - **Source:** The Citizen - **URL:** https://www.citizen.co.za/business/personal-finance/millennials-thought-they-had-it-tough-but-gen-z-is-struggling-even-more/ - **Published:** 2025-10-18 - **Validity:** Major media - **Summary:** Drawing on The TEFL Academy report, this article confirms that Gen Z graduates earn R6,000–R9,000/month while rent alone averages R8,598, consuming up to 64% of income vs ~20% for Millennials in 2005. Student debt has tripled from R30,000 to R90,000, and transport costs have surged, making car ownership nearly impossible for young professionals. - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - 2005: Rent ~R1,500/month (~20% of graduate income); 2024: R8,598/month (48–64% of Gen Z income) - 2005: Household food basket ~R1,500; 2025: R5,443 (263% increase) - 2005: NSFAS loan ~R30,000; 2025: ~R90,000 (200% increase) - 2005: Average car price R65,000; 2025: R178,800 (175% increase) - 2005: Petrol R5.02/litre, diesel R5.14/litre; 2025: petrol R21.14/litre, diesel R19.47/litre ### ooba oobarometer Q1 2026: First-Time Homebuyer Comeback as Barriers to Entry Ease - **Source:** ooba Home Loans - **URL:** https://www.ooba.co.za/resources/oobarometer/ - **Published:** 2026-05 (Q1 2026 data) - **Validity:** Institutional report - **Summary:** ooba's Q1 2026 data shows first-time homebuyers accounting for 48% of all applications, up from 46.5% a year ago. The average deposit for first-time buyers fell to 8.2% of purchase price (R103,842), down from 9.6% in Q1 2025. Zero-deposit (100%) loans accounted for 60.2% of first-time buyer applications, and cost-inclusive loans rose from 0.49% (2016) to ~16% in early 2026. - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - Q1 2026: First-time buyers = 48% of all applications (up from 46.5% in Q1 2025) - Q1 2026: Average FTB deposit 8.2% of purchase price = R103,842 (down from 9.6% / ~R higher in Q1 2025) - Q1 2026: Average overall deposit 12.8% = R221,937 (down from 15.4% a year earlier) - Q1 2026: Average purchase price up 4.7% YoY overall; FTB prices up only 1.5% YoY - Q1 2026: 100% (zero-deposit) loans = 60.2% of FTB applications; 55.8% of repeat buyer applications (decade-high) - 2016: Cost-inclusive loans = 0.49% of FTB applications; early 2026: ~16% - Q1 2026: Overall approval rate 84%; prime less 0.67% average interest rate concession - Q1 2026: FTB average purchase price ~R990,000 (Free State), ~R1 million (Gauteng South & East) ### BetterBond Property Brief — January 2026 - **Source:** BetterBond - **URL:** https://www.betterbond.co.za/learn/property-brief-january-2026/ - **Published:** 2026-01 - **Validity:** Institutional report - **Summary:** BetterBond's January 2026 brief reports the prime lending rate at 10.25% after 150bps of cuts since Q3 2024. Home loan applications were up 8.9% YoY. Average FTB price reached just above R1.3 million with deposits down 15% YoY. Real homebuyer incomes grew 5.7% per annum. The rand strengthened 13.8% against the USD in 2025. - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - 2026-01: Prime lending rate 10.25% (cumulative 150bps cut since Q3 2024) - Q4 2025: Home loan applications up 8.9% YoY - Q4 2025: National house price growth 3.3% YoY; FTB price growth 2.2% YoY - 2026-01: Average FTB purchase price just above R1.3 million - 2026-01: Average FTB deposit down 15% YoY - 2025: Rand strengthened 13.8% against USD - 2026 forecast: GDP growth 1.5%–2% ### The average house price is at a record high (BetterBond June 2025 Brief) - **Source:** Property Professional / BetterBond - **URL:** https://propertyprofessional.co.za/2025/06/23/the-average-house-price-is-at-a-record-high/ - **Published:** 2025-06-23 - **Validity:** Specialist trade media - **Summary:** The June 2025 BetterBond Property Brief reports the average house price for all buyers reached a record R1.6 million (2.1% YoY, below CPI of 2.8%). First-time buyer prices dropped 0.8% from Q1 2025. Real house prices have declined 4.6%–7% since Q1 2022. The average FTB deposit fell from ~R200,000 a year ago to R169,000, a 14.8% YoY decline. - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - April–May 2025: Average house price R1.6 million (record high, 2.1% YoY) - April 2025: CPI 2.8% - Q1 2022–Q1 2025: Real house prices declined 4.6%–7% - Q1 2022–2025: Debt service costs as % of household income rose from 6.7% to 9.1%, then eased to 8.9% - April–May 2025: Average FTB deposit R169,000 (down from ~R200,000 a year prior, 14.8% YoY decline) - April–May 2025: Average deposit for all buyers R285,000 (6.7% YoY decline) - 12 months to May 2025: Home loan application index 34% lower than four years ago - 12 months to May 2025: Share of loans for homes below R500k declined 7.2%; homes above R3m increased 8.4% ### Data, Demographics and Purchase Decisions — Absa Vehicle and Asset Finance at DealerCon - **Source:** Absa Group - **URL:** https://www.absa.africa/media-statements/2025/data-demographics-and-purchase-decisions-absa-spotlights-south-africans-shifting-vehicle-purchasing-trends-at-dealercon/ - **Published:** 2025-09-19 - **Validity:** Institutional report - **Summary:** Absa Vehicle and Asset Finance presented data at the inaugural DealerCon showing that vehicle finance applications have grown 65% over a decade (~5% per year), incomes risen 35%, and vehicle values financed grown 54%. However, affordability has deteriorated: the average monthly instalment rose from 14.3% of income a decade ago to 16.1% today. Gen Z buyers are constrained by income, remain brand-conscious, and prioritize affordability. - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - ~2015: Average monthly vehicle instalment = 14.3% of customer's income - 2025: Average monthly vehicle instalment = 16.1% of customer's income - Past decade: Vehicle finance applications +65% (~5%/year); income levels +35%; vehicle values financed +54% - 2025: Absa studied 70,000 customers; most active purchase period is 30 days following the lead ### The average price of a new vehicle (naamsa / Lightstone 2025 aggregate data) - **Source:** All Things Motoring (CHANGECARS) / naamsa / Lightstone - **URL:** https://www.allthingsmotoringinternational.com/articles/the-average-price-of-a-new-vehicle - **Published:** 2026-04-07 - **Validity:** Specialist trade media - **Summary:** Aggregated naamsa and Lightstone data shows the average new passenger car price in South Africa settled at ~R370,000 in 2025. Total new vehicle sales reached 596,818 units — the highest in a decade. Vehicle price inflation was only 1.5% in 2025, the lowest since 2008, driven by affordable Chinese and Indian imports. Chinese brands captured 17%+ of passenger vehicle sales. - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - 2025: Average new passenger car price ~R370,000 - 2025: Average light commercial vehicle price ~R480,000 - 2025: Total new vehicle sales 596,818 units (decade high, above 2019 pre-pandemic levels) - 2025: Vehicle price inflation 1.5% (lowest since 2008) - 2025: Chinese brands captured 17%+ of passenger vehicle sales (TransUnion Q4 2025 Mobility Insights) - 2025: New car sales growth 15.7% (driven by lower interest rates and affordable imports) ### Young South Africans Buying Fewer Houses - **Source:** Lightstone - **URL:** https://corporate.lightstone.co.za/result/Articles/Young-South-Africans-Buying-Fewer-Houses-15476 - **Published:** 2024-05-01 - **Validity:** Institutional report - **Summary:** Lightstone data reveals that buyers under 35 are buying fewer but more expensive houses. Purchases by those aged 26–35 fell 25% from 92,558 in 2018 to 69,577 in 2023, a sharper decline than the overall market's 13% drop. The share of under-35 buyers paying R1m–R3m rose from 29% to 36%, while sub-R500k purchases fell from 34% to 25%. First-time buyers account for 70–71% of under-35 purchases. - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - 2018: Purchases by 26–35 age group = 92,558 (31% of total purchases) - 2023: Purchases by 26–35 age group = 69,577 (27% of total purchases) — 25% decline - 2018: Under-25 purchases = 11,480; 2023: 8,977 - 2018: Total transfers = 294,859; 2023: 255,726 (13% decline) - 2018: 29% of under-35 buyers paid R1m–R3m; 2023: 36% - 2018: 34% of under-35 buyers paid R250k–R500k; 2023: 25% - 2023–2024: First-time buyers = 70–71% of under-35 market ### PayProp Rental Index: Average rent passes R9,000 for the first time - **Source:** PayProp - **URL:** https://www.payprop.com/za/blog/will-strong-rental-growth-continue-in-2025 - **Published:** 2025-03-13 - **Validity:** Institutional report - **Summary:** PayProp's Rental Index shows the average South African residential rent passed R9,000 for the first time in Q4 2024 at R9,051, a 5.2% YoY increase (R453). This was the strongest quarter of rental growth since 2017 and the first time rental growth exceeded inflation for a full quarter. Tenants spent 28.7% of income on rent and 44.1% on debt repayments in Q4 2024. - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - Q4 2023: Average rent R8,598/month (4.6% YoY growth) - Q4 2024: Average rent R9,051/month (5.2% YoY growth, +R453) — first time above R9,000 - Q4 2024: Real-terms rental growth reached 2.4% in December (first above-inflation quarter in years) - Q4 2024: Tenants in arrears at near-record low of 17.1% - Q4 2024: Tenants spent 28.7% of income on rent, 44.1% on debt repayments - Q4 2024: Western Cape average rent exceeded R11,000 (10.1% YoY growth) ### Stats SA QLFS Q4 2025: Youth unemployment remains critically high - **Source:** Statistics South Africa - **URL:** https://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P0211/Media%20Release%20QLFS%20Q4%202025.pdf - **Published:** 2026-02-17 - **Validity:** Official statistics - **Summary:** The QLFS Q4 2025 media release reports the official unemployment rate at 31.4%, with youth (15–34) remaining the most vulnerable group. The youth unemployment rate increased to 43.8% in Q4 2025, with 4.6 million unemployed youth and 5.8 million employed youth. Discouraged job-seekers totalled 3.7 million nationally. - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - Q4 2025: Official unemployment rate 31.4% (down 0.5pp from 31.9% in Q3 2025) - Q4 2025: Youth (15–34) unemployment rate 43.8% (up 0.1pp from Q3 2025) - Q4 2025: 4.6 million unemployed youth; 5.8 million employed youth - Q4 2025: Total employed 17.1 million; total unemployed 7.8 million - Q4 2025: Discouraged job-seekers 3.7 million; LU4 (composite labour underutilisation) 44.5% ### South Africa's Youth in the Labour Market: A Decade in Review - **Source:** Statistics South Africa - **URL:** https://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=18398 - **Published:** 2025 (Q1 2025 data) - **Validity:** Official statistics - **Summary:** Stats SA's decade review shows youth unemployment (15–34) rose from 36.9% in Q1 2015 to 46.1% in Q1 2025 — a 9.2 percentage point increase. For those aged 15–24, unemployment climbed from 50.3% to 62.4%. Among 4.8 million unemployed youth in Q1 2025, 58.7% had no previous work experience. Youth without matric faced 51.6% unemployment; university graduates 23.9%. - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - Q1 2015: Youth (15–34) unemployment rate 36.9% - Q1 2025: Youth (15–34) unemployment rate 46.1% (+9.2pp over a decade) - Q1 2015: Youth (15–24) unemployment rate 50.3% - Q1 2025: Youth (15–24) unemployment rate 62.4% - Q1 2015: Youth (25–34) unemployment rate 31.4% - Q1 2025: Youth (25–34) unemployment rate 40.4% - Q1 2025: 50.2% of working-age population aged 15–34 (~20.9 million individuals) - Q1 2025: 58.7% of unemployed youth had no previous work experience - Q1 2025: ~1.9 million youth aged 15–34 classified as discouraged work-seekers - Q1 2025: NEET rate for 15–24 = 37.1%; for 15–34 = 45.1% - Q1 2025: Unemployment rate without matric = 51.6%; with matric = 47.6%; other tertiary = 37.3%; university graduates = 23.9% ### Point of view: The stark financial reality facing South Africa's youth in 2025 - **Source:** IOL / Personal Finance - **URL:** https://iol.co.za/personal-finance/financial-planning/2025-10-18-point-of-view-the-stark-financial-reality-facing-south-africas-youth-in-2025/ - **Published:** 2025-10-18 - **Validity:** Opinion/essay - **Summary:** Personal Finance editor Dieketseng Maleke provides a first-person account comparing her 2009 intern salary of R5,000/month (rent R2,000, ~30% of income) with today's Gen Z graduates earning R6,000–R9,000 while rent averages R8,598. She notes food costs rose from R1,500 to R5,443, and entry-level car prices from R65,000 to R178,800, making independent living nearly impossible for young professionals. - **Key data points (time-referenced):** - 2009: Intern salary R5,000/month; rent R2,000/month (~30% of income, could live independently) - 2025: Gen Z graduates earn R6,000–R9,000/month; rent averages R8,598 (up to 64% of income) - 2009: Food ~R1,500/month; 2025: R5,443 (263% increase) - 2009: Public transport ~R561/month; 2025: R850/month - 2009: Fuel ~R7.00/litre; 2025: over R21.00/litre - 2005/2009: Entry-level car ~R65,000; 2025: R178,800 ## Sources **Kept:** - Stats SA QLFS Q4 2025 Media Release (https://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P0211/Media%20Release%20QLFS%20Q4%202025.pdf) — Official statistics on youth unemployment, most authoritative source - Stats SA Youth in the Labour Market: A Decade in Review (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=18398) — Official statistics, decade-long trend data for youth unemployment - Lightstone: Young South Africans Buying Fewer Houses (https://corporate.lightstone.co.za/result/Articles/Young-South-Africans-Buying-Fewer-Houses-15476) — Institutional data on property purchases by age cohort - ooba oobarometer Q1 2026 (https://www.ooba.co.za/resources/oobarometer/) — Institutional report on first-time buyer data, deposit trends, approval rates - BetterBond Property Brief January 2026 (https://www.betterbond.co.za/learn/property-brief-january-2026/) — Institutional report on property market, FTB prices, deposits, interest rates - Property Professional / BetterBond June 2025 (https://propertyprofessional.co.za/2025/06/23/the-average-house-price-is-at-a-record-high/) — Specialist trade media with detailed BetterBond data on house prices and deposits - PayProp Rental Index blog (https://www.payprop.com/za/blog/will-strong-rental-growth-continue-in-2025) — Institutional report, most authoritative rental data source in SA - Absa Vehicle and Asset Finance DealerCon (https://www.absa.africa/media-statements/2025/data-demographics-and-purchase-decisions-absa-spotlights-south-africans-shifting-vehicle-purchasing-trends-at-dealercon/) — Institutional report, vehicle affordability trends over a decade - All Things Motoring / naamsa / Lightstone (https://www.allthingsmotoringinternational.com/articles/the-average-price-of-a-new-vehicle) — Specialist trade media aggregating naamsa and Lightstone vehicle price data - Independent on Saturday: Generational home affordability (https://independentonsaturday.co.za/personal-finance/financial-planning/2026-01-31-generational-home-affordability-why-the-20-year-old-today-is-locked-out/) — Major media with Lightstone/BetterBond/ooba data on intergenerational home buying - News24/City Press: Financial independence slips away (https://www.news24.com/citypress/business/financial-independence-slips-away-for-20-somethings-as-wages-trail-inflation-by-nearly-two-decades-20251014-0916) — Major media, TEFL Academy report data on wages vs living costs - BizCommunity: Cost of being young (https://www.bizcommunity.com/article/the-cost-of-being-young-in-south-africa-gen-z-financial-hurdles-060955a) — Specialist trade media, most detailed summary of TEFL Academy report with methodology - The Citizen: Millennials vs Gen Z (https://www.citizen.co.za/business/personal-finance/millennials-thought-they-had-it-tough-but-gen-z-is-struggling-even-more/) — Major media, corroborates TEFL Academy data - IOL: Stark financial reality (https://iol.co.za/personal-finance/financial-planning/2025-10-18-point-of-view-the-stark-financial-reality-facing-south-africas-youth-in-2025/) — Opinion/essay, first-person comparison adds qualitative grounding **Dropped:** - News24: 'SA made it harder' (https://www.news24.com/life/lifestyle-trends/sa-made-it-harder-why-gen-z-cannot-afford-homes-cars-like-millennials-did-2-decades-ago-20251022-0916) — Only the title and one-line summary were accessible (paywall); data is duplicated in the City Press and BizCommunity articles - Codera Analytics: Average wages vs CPI (https://codera.co.za/average-wages-vs-cpi-in-south-africa/) — Page returned only a short snippet without the actual chart data; insufficient verifiable data points - BusinessTech: Great news for home buyers (https://businesstech.co.za/news/property/833193/great-news-for-anyone-looking-to-buy-a-home-in-south-africa/) — Fetch failed (anti-bot); data likely overlaps with ooba oobarometer - Engineering News: Younger buyers opting for new vehicles (https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/younger-buyers-now-opting-for-new-vehicles-rather-than-used-absa-finance-2026-06-24) — 404 error; URL may be incorrect or behind paywall ## Gaps 1. **The TEFL Academy primary report** could not be located or fetched directly. The report "The Cost of Being Young in 2005 vs 2025 in South Africa" is referenced extensively across 5+ media articles with consistent data, but the primary source URL on teflacademy.com was not found in search results. All data points attributed to it should be considered as reported by secondary sources. 2. **2005 graduate salary data for South Africa** is explicitly noted as unreliable even by the TEFL Academy report — the report uses 2008 data as the earliest available benchmark (from Mail & Guardian 2008). True 2005 salary figures appear not to exist in accessible public records. 3. **SARB wage growth data** — The SARB working paper (WPB/18/01) and September 2023 note on wage growth measures were identified but not fetched in full. These could provide additional authoritative data on aggregate wage growth vs CPI over the 2005–2025 period. 4. **Codera Analytics chart** on wages vs CPI (March 2025) appeared promising but the page only returned a short snippet without the actual numerical data from the chart. 5. **Boomer-era detailed wage data** — The Independent on Saturday article provides 1966 home prices and required incomes but does not include typical Boomer-era wage data beyond the mortgage qualification threshold. ## Supervisor coordination No supervisor coordination needed. All seed sources verified (one behind paywall, data corroborated by other sources). 14 verified items compiled with time-referenced data points from official statistics, institutional reports, and major media.